Infinite Digging #14
On US Consumer Spending (so far), ARK Invest's Big Ideas 2025, A.I., Short-Form vs Long-Form Content, and McDonalds.
I’ve been doing a lot more reading than writing lately. Partially for an escape (I’m currently reading Kaliane Bradley’s A Ministry of Time and Haruki Murakami’s Norwegian Wood), and partially to understand what the fuck is happening rn.
Specifically, the 2025 US Consumer Spending trends and how people are responding to marketing online. I’m an optimist at heart – I know a whole lot of nothing is happening right now as people wait for the economic changes to settle down, but my heart (and history) tells me that this is the time of opportunity if you play it right.
I think we tend to downplay the amount of information thrown at us digitally (meaning phone, computer, and TV) that sometimes it’s easier to consume rather than digest and strategize on the smartest way to navigate through the already crowded space. I also think that due to the amount of noise, sometimes it’s hard to tell what’s 1) a very clever ad 2) a meaningful brand discovery 3) a post/video/ad that actually converts.
What would you categorize this video as? It’s 1 & 2 for me.
In short, I’ve been information overloaded and it’s not the best spot to be at because my head hurts all the time. But, it’s also not the worst spot to be in because now you get a new Infinite Digging segment on some things I’ve had my nose into lately.
ARK Invest’s Big Ideas 2025
Each year, I look forward to Cathie Wood’s Big Ideas 2025 PDF showing the disruptive technologies that could poise as good investments for the year. (For the time being, I don’t care about your opinion on her, I really do enjoy this PDF every year. Feel free to share your opinion anyway. Maybe, I’ll care about it one day.)
AI is an obvious choice. Last May, I ranted here about how AI sucked within e-comm (and possibly other markets) due to the lack of control over brand messaging and image. The TLDR is yes, it’s a great tool. It’s also not fully there yet so AI usage should only be encouraged within industries, not forced or penalized if not used.
This year is a little different as AI continues its exponential growth with features more moldable to the individual brand and consumer (still not there yet but baby steps). The adoption of AI within e-comm will continue to trend positively with wider integration by 2030 (maybe, but most likely).
You can find direct examples of how that plays out IRL in the full PDF, which is free and available to download here if you want to read more.
Maybe, I’ll dive deeper into my thoughts on AI through a macro lens in a separate edition of ID but I’ll touch on my most recent ones on using AI creatively as I shared with my dear and creative friend So-Hee (she makes these cool 3D printed accessories that you can view/shop here): In terms of creative work (and this can range from copywriting to image generation), the general assumption is that you can use AI to replicate what’s already being done but much quicker–which isn’t entirely wrong but let me tell you why that POV sucks ass.
1) As I mentioned before, it’s not all there yet. Despite the advances, there’s still a lot of room left for AI’s creativity (if you can say that). Currently, a change in an image prompt causes a complete regeneration, often displaying a different image than what was displayed before. Let’s say that I want to make an image of a white dress with a floral pattern and it makes it. I like the image created, but for some reason, the image is cropped leaving the right side of the dress missing. I then ask the platform to include the full image of the dress with some padding around the dress and it will, only it’s a new dress with a new floral pattern completely different from the one I saw before, and I don’t like the second dress. I like the first one. This is also why people say one of the best skills you can learn right now is AI prompting because being able to make these small changes without losing the original image isn’t as easy as it is with traditional digital methods. The control isn’t quite there for the user yet or maybe we haven’t mastered it yet as a whole.
2) BUT PERSONALLY, I don’t think you should view the tool with the goal of replicating the existing examples, because due to point #1, it’s not the easiest thing to do. People see through it every time because the images/videos look unnatural. YOU SHOULD INSTEAD view the output as something that takes advantage of the weird output. This video is so fucking weird but I couldn’t tell you how many times I laughed at it, and it’s a new meme format. It’s not copying what’s natural, but rather embracing the chaos of it all.
Short-form vs Long-form Content
With the popularity of TikTok and Reels, YouTube decided to follow suit and launched Shorts to boost short-form content within the platform, but the strong push for Shorts came after a $8.1 billion spike in ad revenue (somewhat due to the integration of Shorts), convincing YouTube that this was an area of the company to focus on.
Well, the people have spoken and chosen long-form content as king for YouTube with a reported YOY growth in long-form content viewership. I found this fascinating for about 5 minutes – because duh. When I think of short-form, I instantly think of TikTok or Reels. When I think of long-form, I think of YouTube. The association of short-form with Shorts isn’t fully there. As a matter of fact, I just made the association JUST NOW while writing this that it’s called Shorts because of short-form content. I’ve never even registered and I spend about 2 hours each week on YouTube. LOL
What are you supposed to do now with this information? Idk, diversify your content?? The way I see it (and this perspective is strictly for YouTube, not Tiktok or Reels) you should be pumping both short and long-form content because they serve different audiences. Short-form content is how you acquire new viewers and long-form content is how you appease your existing audience.
What’s going on with McDonald's????
I can’t believe that mid-way through writing this, I took a break and drove to McDonald’s because just looking at the words made me wonder: when was the last time I had McDonalds? (It actually wasn’t too long ago. I got a happy meal and was not happy with my Pokemon cards). THAT SAID, I don’t go to McDonalds often and if I had to pinpoint the moment when I decided to stop frequenting, it was when the price of the hashbrowns went up. Back in my day, they used to cost $1 each. Why am I spending $3 per hashbrown? I can get a full meal with better quality for a lower price at In-N-Out and feel much better about my decision so why would I go to McDonald’s?
It turns out that much of America felt the same way, as US sales decreased in 2024 after a price rise to combat inflation. On top of that, McDonald's had an E. coli outbreak that directly affected its customers last October. Where am I heading with this and why did I care about this story so much?
This is why. It was all a ploy to get you here…
McDonald’s didn’t do too great in the US market last year, but overall, their sales leveled out just fine due to international sales. Sales have climbed in places they have never climbed before!!! Something, something, the opportunities are there if you play it smart.
But more about me and my thoughts on 2025 spend and where I think the most growth will happen ***********drumroll******* I THINK TOYS.
If you weren’t hip to the hottest toy of the holiday season, the famously sold-out Labubu’s, just know that it created enough buzz for Morgan Stanley to add Popmart as “a preferred pick [with predictions of] strong earnings this year.”
Why is this important here? Because I think the team in charge of Happy Meal toys could be better and it could potentially cross over to revenue if done correctly. Granted, I’m not the target audience for this particular meal, but the toys used to mean something. Y’all had the opportunity to bring these back during the Sonic 3 Happy Meal!
There’s probably something I’m not taking in consideration like MOQs, costs, and regulations – but maybe there’s something there? Anyway, that’s it for now. Chat soon IDers!!